Just 24 hours after new release rules came into effect, hundreds of prisoners have begun leaving jails across England and Wales earlier than previously expected, amid concerns about accommodation and probation capacity.

The Ministry of Justice estimated that 700 prisoners would be released on the first day of the new progression model on 1 October. A further 3,800 releases are estimated across nine further tranches between October 2026 and June 2027.

The changes were introduced under the Sentencing Act 2026, which changes when some prisoners serving fixed-term sentences can be released. Eligible prisoners will spend at least one third of their sentence in custody, while those serving sentences for more serious offences will generally spend at least half in prison.

The scheme does not apply to a number of offences, including manslaughter, rape, certain child sex offences and offences linked to organised child sexual exploitation. Life sentences and other indeterminate sentences are also excluded.

The changes came into force on 1 October but are being introduced in stages. The government says the phased approach is intended to allow releases to be managed alongside sentence calculations, victim notification and arrangements for supervision in the community.

Those released under the progression model remain on licence and are subject to supervision and licence conditions. The Ministry of Justice says prisoners can be recalled to custody where they cannot be safely managed in the community.

The first releases have also prompted concerns about whether accommodation and probation services can cope. The Guardian reported that probation officers were struggling to find hostel places for people being released.

One probation source told the Guardian: ‘We have a handful of places for ex-offenders and they are full. We are now looking at releasing some people straight on to the street.’

The Guardian also reported that some prisoners leaving custody had concerns about finding somewhere to live and complying with licence conditions. One man leaving HMP Cardiff said: ‘Thank you very much and don’t get me back here again, bro.’

Nacro chief executive Enver Solomon told the Guardian that homelessness after prison can put people on a path back into custody, and said prisons, probation services, councils and community organisations needed to work together to provide accommodation.

The Ministry of Justice says it is expanding electronic monitoring and investing £700m in probation and community services. It is also planning to create 14,000 additional prison places as part of its response to pressure on the prison system.