A landmark sentencing review by David Gauke has warned that English and Welsh prison systems are on the brink of collapse, urging a shift away from short-term custodial sentences in favour of more robust community-based alternatives.

The Independent Sentencing Review, published last month, was launched in response to spiralling prison numbers and mounting evidence that the current system fails to reduce reoffending rates. The prison population is forecast to reach 105,000 by 2029, far beyond the current operational capacity of around 88,800. The Review calls for the release of some prisoners after serving just 40% of their sentence, rather than the standard 50%.

The Review recommends scrapping most sentences under 12 months, expanding use of community orders, and introducing an ‘earned progression model’ under which most prisoners could be released after serving one-third of their term—if they demonstrate good behaviour and engage with rehabilitation programmes.

Pia Sinha of the Prison Reform Trust called the proposals ‘a sensible, phased approach to rehabilitation’, praising the emphasis on supporting prisoners as they re-enter society under supervision. The Howard League for Penal Reform echoed this support but warned reforms must go hand-in-hand with investment in an expanded probation service.

Others were more critical of the proposed reform. Phil Bowen of the Centre for Justice Innovation, previously reporting in the Justice Gap, said that expanding community justice is ‘not a silver bullet’, citing the probation system’s own capacity crisis and the lack of detail in the Review about improving community sentencing.

Critics have raised concerns that the proposals may compromise public safety. Shadow Home Secretary, Robert Jenrick, claimed the changes could ‘spark a crime wave’, while Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones warned the reforms could prove ‘catastrophic’ without urgent improvements to probation funding and oversight. Additionally, organisations worry that the Review does not address the impact of longer sentences for more serious offences, ‘a key driver of the rising prison population’, according to the Prison Reform Trust.

The Criminal Justice Alliance urged the government to address racial and gender disparities, strengthen collaboration with voluntary services, and meaningfully involve people with lived experience to bolster the Review’s proposals.